Areidy Beltran is a first-generation college graduate and current PhD candidate researching the impacts of climate change on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus. She investigates where water availability may lead to water, food, or energy insecurity around the world in the 21st century.
“You can accomplish anything with perseverance, grit and hardwork, the possibilities are limitless.”
Summary
Among her other work, Areidy has published a journal article titled, “Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture,” which explores a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. This study focused on self-sufficiency ratios, which is the ratio of projected production over the ratio of projected demand. On the production side, the study accounted for yield increases through sustainable irrigation expansion, as well as changes in yield due to climate change scenarios. On the projected demand side, they looked at food waste, biofuels, changing diets and population growth estimates.
A scenario assessment, as identified in the publication, focused on three cases: the sustainability scenario, middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual scenario.
The sustainability scenario presents a relatively low population with a highly sensitive response and drive towards adaptation and mitigation of any adverse impacts that may arise from climate change, particularly on food production systems.
Middle-of-the-road-scenario involves an equilibrium balance in the projected food production and demand.
Business-as-usual scenarios depict relatively high population cases with far less or no considerate actions towards ensuring environmental sustainability and integrity.
The study concludes that whilst the sustainability scenario projects a decrease in food demand by 12%, business as usual scenarios indicate a triple in the demand for food.
Consequently, as populations increase, climate change would present hard pressing and enormous pressure on food production systems.
Projections made through 2100
The self-sufficiency ratio gives an account of the measure by which countries are able to sustain food production through a projection to 2100. The study shows that the African continent, consequently bearing a self-sufficiency ratio of less than one, stands high risks of food shortage. Areidy intends to further undertake a case study on the African continent to understand more about what adaptation measures could be implemented.
Areidy identifies three areas that we can focus on today for a better future: 1) sustainability increase agricultural production without jeopardizing the environment and our ability to produce food in the future, 2) invest in girls’ education and 3) minimize meat consumption and food waste.
Learn more about Areidy’s work at https://geggybee.wixsite.com/areidy.